The number of new cases of HIV diagnosed in the UK in 2002 looks set to be the highest ever, according to figures released by the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) in advance of World AIDS Day on 1st December.
The PHLS is predicting a 25% increase in new cases of HIV this year. By the end of September, 2945 new HIV diagnoses had been reported, an increase on 2354 in the same period last year. The total figure for 2002 will rise even further as reports for the last quarter and late reports come in.
Dr Kevin Fenton , Head of the HIV and STI Division of the PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, said, "This record high for HIV diagnoses is very concerning, especially as data from the Unlinked Anonymous programme indicate that ongoing transmission of HIV is occurring. We are not only diagnosing infections which were acquired many years ago. HIV is a current, not a historical, problem".
It's thought by the PHLS that 3% of gay men attending sexual health services in London will be infected with HIV in the course of a year, and that in total approximately 1,500 gay men will be newly infected with HIV in 2002, a figure which has remained steady for the past decade.
According to Dr Fenton, the PHLS is also expecting to see "significant increases" in the number of heterosexuals becoming infected with HIV abroad. Dr Fenton added, "many, though not all, of these are in people of Black African ethnic origin and we must ensure that information, advice and services are made available to these ethnic groups as well as gay men."
The PHLS is also highlighting data indicating a general deterioration in the UK's sexual health and welcomes the launch of a government sexual health education campaign which has the strapline Don't Play the Sex Lottery, and is targeted at young people, who have the highest burden of sexually tranmsitted infection in the UK. The campaign was first proposed in the government's National Strategy on Sexual Health and HIV. The Department of Health's condom campaign will not specifically cover infection which HIV, with HIV prevention work remaining the remit of specialist organisations such as the Terrence Higgins Trust.
Although the PHLS figures are likely to cause concern, there will also be relief that the figures are not worse. Recent outbreaks of syphilis amongst gay men in a number of UK cities and research and anecdotal evidence that gay men are having more anonymous unprotected anal sex, had led to predictions that a "second wave" of new HIV cases was about to hit UK gay men, but as the latest PHLS estimate suggests, such predictions have not yet translated into an increase in new HIV diagnoses amongst gay men.
For more PHLS statistics on the UK HIV epidemic click here